I'm starting to see a few of the technopundit talking heads parrot the line that Apple's unwillingness to license FairPlay DRM to other online music stores is MacHistory MacRepeating its MacSelf
Just as it happened with PCs, other digital music products will narrow Apple's technology lead. Maybe those products will never be as good as Apple's, but they'll become good enough — and they'll be based on broader standards that don't lock in users, and they'll probably be cheaper. If history is any guide, when that happens Apple's share of digital music will leach away.This, of course, is complete crap.
Quite simply, the parallels are weak and the ultimate conclusion doesn't square with the facts.
The reason Apple's operating system sales lost ground to Microsoft Windows wasn't that Apple didn't license their OS, nor was it that they maintained a closed value chain from hardware to software. It was that corporations never contemplated desktop PC purchases from any vendor other than IBM. Microsoft was simply dragged along for the ride. Only later did corporations discover that they could get complete compatibility from vendors like Dell and Compaq. Apple never stood a chance at becoming the PC of choice in corporate America.
Soon, the ISVs noted the massive imbalance in shipments of Windows vs Mac OS and made the economic decision that the Mac market was too small. Software that was available on Windows wasn't on the Mac. The real decline in Mac OS market share was fuelled by the perception that you couldn't do as much with the machine because the software wasn't there.
Turning to the iPod, the parallel isn't really close -- the iPod isn't Apple's entry into a market (IT) dominated by a single vendor (IBM). Nor will Apple face a scarcity of "software" for the platform: unless labels and artists start placing bets on one DRM format or another, I would expect to see pretty much the same music no matter what online store I visit. If that's the case, who cares if it's FairPlay-locked AAC rather than another format?
Finally, there's the suggestion that the current PC/OS market somehow has settled on an "open" standard OS that offers consumers "choice." This is the most positive possible spin on Microsoft's monopoly I've ever read.
